History, contrary to Francis Fukuyama's famous prediction, did not end in 1989. It merely took a breath. The three-decade interregnum of American unipolarity—an anomaly in the long arc of internatonal relations—is definitively closing.
The evidence is everywhere, but nowhere is it more visible than in the Indo-Pacific. The region has become the crucible of the 21st century, replacing the North Atlantic as the center of global gravity.
The New Mosaic
We are not returning to a Cold War-style duopoly. The emerging order is a messy mosaic of middle powers exerting agency. India, playing both sides of the energy markets; Saudi Arabia, diversifying its security portfolio; and ASEAN nations refusing to choose between Washington's security umbrella and Beijing's economic engine.
This is the new "non-aligned movement," but unlike its 20th-century predecessor, it is not defined by poverty or powerlessness. It is defined by optionality.
Economic Statecraft
The primary weapon in this competition is not yet kinetic; it is economic. Export controls on semiconductors, critical mineral bans, and the weaponization of the dollar clearing system have turned global trade into a zero-sum game. The efficiency of globalization is being sacrificed on the altar of national security resilience.